Citi Predicts Bitcoin to Hit $199K by 2025
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Citigroup's latest forecast paints a bullish picture for Bitcoin, projecting a potential price surge to $199,000 by the end of 2025. This prediction is based on several key factors. Firstly, the significant influence of Bitcoin spot ETFs is highlighted, with over 40% of recent price fluctuations attributed to their activity. The influx of capital into these ETFs, totaling approximately $54.66 billion, has already propelled Bitcoin's price from around $45,000 to $123,000 in a short period. Citi's base-case scenario anticipates an additional $15 billion in ETF inflows this year, translating to an approximate $63,000 increase in Bitcoin's value based on their modeled ratio. Furthermore, a projected 20% increase in active Bitcoin users over the next year is expected to contribute roughly $75,000 to price strength, driven by increased network effects and trading activity. However, the forecast also accounts for macroeconomic headwinds, such as weaker performance in equities and gold, leading to a $3,200 reduction in the price projection. Combining the positive factors of ETF inflows and user growth, and considering macroeconomic impacts, Citi's base-case scenario estimates a Bitcoin price of $135,000 by the end of 2025. The more optimistic bull case, however, envisions significantly higher ETF inflows and stronger-than-expected user growth, potentially pushing Bitcoin to a remarkable $199,000. Conversely, a bearish scenario, marked by sharply negative macroeconomic conditions, could see Bitcoin's price drop to $64,000. The substantial institutional investment in Bitcoin, with globally held ETFs representing approximately 7% of its total supply, underscores the significant shift towards large-scale capital flows influencing the cryptocurrency's trajectory.
