XRP ETF Approval Odds Soar to 83%: SEC’s Next Move?
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Investor optimism surrounding a spot XRP ETF has surged, with Polymarket placing its approval odds at 83%. This surge comes despite the SEC's tendency to extend review periods, often utilizing the full 240-day window for 19b-4 filings. Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart notes that most spot ETF applications currently face October deadlines, making early summer approvals unlikely. While the SEC has delayed decisions on other crypto ETFs, including Grayscale's XRP tracking fund and a Solana ETF, the high approval odds indicate growing market confidence.
The launch of XRP futures contracts and ETFs on the CME and Nasdaq, respectively, signifies increasing institutional interest in XRP, even without a spot ETF. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse emphasizes the importance of ETFs for institutional access to crypto, highlighting the rapid growth of the Bitcoin ETF as a precedent. ETFs simplify crypto investment for Wall Street, eliminating the complexities of direct exchange or wallet management. However, analysts caution that prediction market odds are volatile and could change based on SEC actions.
While the 83% probability is promising, investors should remain cautious. Futures ETFs, such as the XRPI futures ETF, provide alternative exposure but carry risks associated with contango and premium fluctuations. The situation underscores a balance between the growing excitement surrounding XRP ETFs and the need for patience as the SEC's decision timeline unfolds. October appears to be a crucial month for the outcome of numerous ETF applications.
(Source: https://www.newsbtc.com/news/ripple/xrp-etf-at-83-approval-odds-is-the-sec-losing-grip/)
