Bitcoin Price Holds Steady: Is This the Calm Before the Storm?
Bitcoin's price is currently consolidating between $117,000 and $120,000 after reaching a new all-time high above $123,000. While this consolidation might suggest a pause in the upward momentum, underlying metrics indicate potential for further growth. The percentage of Bitcoin supply active in the past 180 days (% Supply Active) is a key indicator. Historically, spikes in this metric have coincided with major market turning points. In spring 2024 and December 2024, % Supply Active surged as Bitcoin approached $70,000 and broke the $100,000 barrier, respectively. Currently, the increase in % Supply Active is modest, suggesting that the market may still be in the early stages of a distribution phase. Analyst Axel Adler notes that the 30-day % Supply Active has risen from negative territory to +2.4%, signaling a shift in holder behavior. However, this is slower than previous bull market peaks, implying that long-term holders remain committed and are not selling. The current consolidation near $120,000 is viewed as healthy. If Bitcoin maintains its position above $120,000, Adler predicts the 30-day % Supply Active could reach 8-10%, potentially even revisiting the 18-20% zone seen at past distribution tops. Technical analysis of the 12-hour Bitcoin chart shows a consolidation phase within a range between $122,077 resistance and $115,724 support. Decreasing volume during this consolidation suggests a healthy pause after a strong breakout. A break above $122,000 could propel Bitcoin towards $130,000, while a fall below $115,724 might lead to a deeper retracement. Overall, the current market conditions, coupled with the relatively low supply activity, point towards a potential for further upside in the Bitcoin price, provided that buyers continue to defend the lower range and accumulation resumes.
