Bitcoin’s Cycle Broken: Institutional Investors Rewrite Crypto Rules

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has declared the death of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle theory, a prediction model previously used to identify buying and selling opportunities based on whale activity. This shift is attributed to the significant influx of institutional investors, including corporations and spot ETFs, who are purchasing Bitcoin as a long-term reserve asset, rather than participating in short-term speculative trading. In the first half of 2025, corporate treasuries doubled the amount of BTC purchased compared to ETFs, demonstrating the substantial impact of institutional involvement. This new dynamic neutralizes the effect of whale selling, as institutional buying absorbs the sell-offs, preventing the sharp price drops previously associated with whale activity. The previous cycle involved whales selling to retail investors, leading to market volatility. The current environment showcases a transfer of Bitcoin from older whales to newer, long-term institutional holders. This change was initially identified in March 2025 when on-chain metrics indicated bearish trends, which was later proven wrong as Bitcoin’s price surged past previous highs, reaching $123,000. The unexpected price recovery prompted Young Ju to revise his prediction and acknowledge the changing market dynamics. Experts like Michael Saylor, Samson Mow, CZ, and Robert Kiyosaki share this view, projecting a continued upward trajectory for Bitcoin, potentially reaching $1 million. This positive outlook is fueled by the belief that institutional investment provides stability and reduces market volatility driven by speculative trading. The emergence of institutional investors has created a more stable market floor, lessening the impact of retail investor actions and establishing a new phase in Bitcoin’s market behavior.

(Source: https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/cryptos-golden-rule-just-got-broken-according-to-analyst/)